The price of oil at $50 per barrel can increase Russia's budget deficit another 800 billion rubles

The price of oil at $50 per barrel can increase Russia's budget deficit another 800 billion rublesFor the first time the new year for the economy starts without any actual economic forecast. The collapse in oil prices to about $50 per barrel did not provide any forecasts of the Bank of Russia, neither the economy nor the analysts of the Ministry of Finance, at the end of 2014, who presented the latest updates to the forecasts for 2015 Since 2005 (with the exception of the price collapse in 2008) was not a situation in which the current price of oil did not fit in any of the departmental stress scenarios. Worst official script now are not officially published pre-calculations of the Ministry of Finance for the collapse of oil prices to average $60 in 2015, with recovery of up to $70 in 2017, In this case, the Russian economy will be reduced, according to the model, by 4%. Current budget projections of the White house for approximately $80 per barrel.In a linear approach to change the budget deficit by 2015 at $50 per barrel will increase even further at least 600-800 billion rubles, which will cause the government when nesokrushimiy all budget costs by 10-15% to spend almost the entire Reserve Fund already in 2015It is unlikely that the government and the presidential administration will now hurry up with solutions and even with comments. On the one hand, the collapse of the beginning of the year would be temporary and execution of oil contracts the end of 2014 at the old price and availability of the Reserve Fund in any case guarantee from fiscal catastrophes at least in the first quarter of 2015, on the other hand, the constant oil price of $40-50 per barrel, and even more below do not allow the Russian Federation, only to modify the budget by 2015, without changing its main priorities. Based on budget projections of the end of 2014.



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