Countdown: before the second Ukrainian war left...

Countdown: before the second Ukrainian war left...Apparently, Ukraine began the countdown of days before resuming full-scale war. The sharp escalation of fighting in the new Russia, the tragic bus at Volnovaha, new mobilization in the Ukrainian army, the breakdown is scheduled for Thursday summit in Astana are the only obvious signs of increasing tensions, says "LOOK".In about a month will be a year from the moment of the coup that destroyed the post-Soviet Ukrainian statehood. The goals of his organizers failed - Ukraine is not left to the West. Atlantische Independent prevented the separation of the Crimea, the rebellion in the new Russia and the tough stance of Russia. After Kiev was not able militarily to suppress the Eastern regions, Ukraine hung between the West and Russia, and everyone understands that long this can last.Fighting between Ukraine and separated Novorossiia formally suspended in early September, but in fact the local battles continued all these months, and in the last days of their intensity clearly increases. To arrange a real truce could be only in one case - if it would start direct negotiations between Kyiv and Donetsk. Without this current pauperize becomes only a pause before the new phase of the war.The unwillingness of Kiev to go to such negotiations makes the resumption of the war is almost inevitable, and in recent days we are seeing a slide to this scenario. Already does not matter even then, whether in Kiev to order the beginning of the offensive in the new Russia, are in Donetsk to counter-attack - the current situation is essentially leaves no parties other than the military.In early autumn, when the armistice was signed, it was clear that it will continue until such time as one party does not think that the world is becoming dangerous for her war.Given the complexity of the provisions of the new Russia is still warring society, protopselaphinae education, not thinking of his life in its present form and the boundaries that it perceives only as transitional. That is the mood of the people is that they understand that the current lull, moreover, it is quite conditional, is only a pause. DND and LNR configured at least to war to gain control over the entire territory of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and the maximum - to classes just South-East of Ukraine, that is all the new Russia. But the ideal is not a trip to Kiev, that is, the subordination of all Ukraine's Pro-Russian forces. Having such goals, Donetsk and Lugansk not afraid to continue the war, realizing that the achievement of these goals will be possible only after the application of the decisive defeat of the Ukrainian army.Another thing Ukraine. Time works against the Kyiv authorities and against the unity of the rest of Ukraine as such. Roughly speaking, Ukraine will not survive such a wound in his side, as DND and LNR - need to try or to separate the breakaway territories, or to regain control over them. But neither the first nor the second is impossible.Poroshenko and Ukrainian political elite could not agree to the Department, not only throughout the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, but even the current DND and LNR. This will destroy the Ukrainian political class, because he still tries to justify the collapse of the economy and the state the fact that Ukraine was attacked by Russia, and all one must resist Russian aggression. Releasing the new Russia, Kiev admits defeat, and moreover, the separated state will begin to attract other areas of the South-East.An intermediate option between the branch and the return is an attempt to isolate the insurgent regions. It's like trying to stop the bleeding, not daring either to amputation or sewing back poluotvorenog feet long it lasts still cannot, you still need to decide on something specific. Pause and so dragged out. Kiev can't let go of Donetsk, but can't return it. But if the refusal of Novorossia means immediate loss of power Poroshenko and Yatseniuk, the new war is still a lesser evil.That will get the Kyiv authorities in the case of a branch of the new Russia? She is or was immediately deposed battalions nazvanie that will come to Kyiv to ask why their months were sent a "Patriotic war", or after some time the army of the new Russia, which as the collapse front and Ukraine will move to Kiev.But what if resume "anti-terrorist operation"? Of course, there is a great risk that the Novorossiysk troops will occupy the entire Donetsk and Lugansk region, and then out to the city and Crimea. But in Kiev believe that they are not left in the lurch - not so much even during the NATO intervention (which is impossible), but that the reaction of the US and the EU will be so severe that Russia will not allow the militia to move far to the South, North and especially the West. That is, even if Poroshenko will lose another part of the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, the fact that the war will allow for some time to turn the attention of Ukrainian society from Kiev to Moscow as the root of all evil, and will also increase the support of the West, both financial and political.So, with all the risks of the current owners of Ukraine it seems that this option gives them the opportunity to retain power. Given that they can do nothing to save the country (and this would be possible only if the refusal of the Atlantic course and the rebuilding Square on new, Confederate grounds, that neither Hillary Clinton nor Yatsenyuk never will), the only thing they have left is to do everything to prolong his power. And, it seems that all what they are capable of, is war.Time is against Kiev, but, deciding now to war, Poroshenko still will not cheat history. Hitting the new Russia, it activates all destructive processes, almost frozen in winter in Ukraine in the global conflict between Russia and the United States. The second stage of the Ukrainian military conflict can be, and will not be the last in the course of the battle for Ukraine, but it is sure to bring the final collapse of the Ukrainian statehood.



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